Wildcats and Golden Eagles square off in Big East Tourney

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/11/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams that have a history of playing close games meet in the quarterfinal round of the Big East Tournament today, as the fifth-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles battle the fourth-seeded and 10th-ranked Villanova Wildcats at Madison Square Garden.

These clubs met twice this past January, with Villanova capturing a two-point victory in each clash. Those meetings came after the Wildcats claimed a thrilling 76-75 victory over the Eagles in the quarterfinals of last year's Big East Tournament. Thanks to the narrow wins, Villanova now owns a 10-6 all- time record against Marquette.

If the Wildcats are to continue their recent success against the Eagles however, they will have to play better than they did down the stretch. After winning 22 of its first 24 games, Villanova dropped four its final six to fall out of contention for a Big East title. Furthermore, the late slide dropped the team into a three-way tie for second place, earning the fourth seed after the tie-breakers were worked out. Still, the Wildcats received a double-bye for the second straight year with a 13-5 finish, and they are just one win away from a fifth semifinals appearance in the last seven years.

The Eagles meanwhile, were one of the hottest teams coming down the stretch, winning nine of their last 11 games of the regular season. Marquette, which has had a knack for playing close games, continued its run and trend of tight games with a 57-55 nipping of 13th-seeded St. John's in second-round play yesterday.

The winner of this game will move on to face the victor of the Syracuse/Georgetown pairing in the semifinals on Friday.

The Eagles blew a 14-point lead yesterday, but David Cubillan's three-pointer with 1.11 to play put them back on top for good in a 57-55 win over SJU. Lazar Hayward tacked on two free throws with 35 seconds left to provide a cushion for Marquette, which drained 10-of-18 long-range buckets on the day. Hayward finished with 20 points and nine rebounds, while Cubillan posted 11 points. A second-team all-Big East choice, Hayward led the Eagles in scoring (18.0 ppg) as well as rebounding (7.8 rpg) during the regular season. Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom followed with 15.2 and 12.9 ppg respectively, but they combined for just 10 points yesterday.

The Wildcats are an explosive team that finished the regular-season averaging a healthy 82.8 ppg, while shooting 37.2 percent from downtown and 75.1 percent at the foul line. Scottie Reynolds is the driving force behind this attack and the first-team all-league choice leads Villanova in scoring (18.8 ppg) as well as steals (47). A 39.9 percent three-point shooter, Reynolds also dishes out 3.4 apg. Corey Fisher, who earned a spot on the all-league third-team, checks in with 13.5 ppg and he distributes a team-best 4.0 apg. Antonio Pena is the team's top option down low and he puts forth 10.8 ppg and a team-high 7.4 rpg.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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